城市采暖期气温变化特征及其均生函数模型预测试验

Variation Characteristics of Air Temperature and Forecast Experiment of Mean Generating Function Model in Heating Period

用哈尔滨市 195 1～ 2 0 0 3年日平均气温资料 ,从气候角度阐述了哈尔滨市冬季采暖开、闭炉日期的意义 ,分析了日平均气温稳定通过 5℃初、终日和采暖期平均气温的变化特征 ,结果表明 :日平均气温稳定大于等于 5℃终、初日分别与采暖期平均气温有显著的正、负相关关系 ;随着采暖期平均气温逐渐升高 ,日平均气温稳定大于等于 5℃终日逐渐拖后 ,初日逐渐提前 ;采暖期平均气温和日平均气温稳定大于等于 5℃终、初日均存在突变现象。有必要改变以往的采暖模式 ,根据采暖期气温进行采暖能源调控。利用均生函数模型对 2 0 0 4～ 2 0 0 6年日平均气温稳定大于等于 5℃终、初日和采暖开、闭炉日期进行了预测试验。

By using of daily mean temperature from 1951 to 2003 in Harbin, the climatic significance of beginning and ending dates of heating periods is discussed. The dates of first and last days with air temperature being stably over 5 ℃ and the variation characteristics of mean temperatures during heating periods in Harbin were analyzed. The results reveal that prominent negative/positive relation exists between the dates of first/last days with air temperature being ≥5 ℃ and mean temperatures of heating periods; and there exist sudden changes in the mean temperatures of heating periods and the dates of first/last days with air temperature being ≥5 ℃. Therefore, it is necessary to change the former heating model to adjust heating energy resources utilization according to temperature of heating periods. Furthermore, the modeling of the dates of first and the last days with daily mean temperature being stably ≥5 ℃ in Harbin was conducted by the mean generating function model. The simulating and forecasting effectiveness were analyzed and the trial forecasting experiments from 2004 to 2006 were made. The results indicate that the mean generating function model has certain forecast capability.