岳阳县总体经济计量预测模型及其应用

Yueyang County Aggregate Econometric Forecasting Model and Its Application

预测未来,是一个国家,地区或部门在制定中长期发展计划时的主要基础工作。为了制定岳阳县总体经济的“八五”计划和长期发展计划,中南财经大学数量经济研究所和中南工业大学管理工程系两单位九人与岳阳县中长期规划办公室研究人员一起,进行了“岳阳县中长期发展规划”研究。在研究过程中,我们以系统工程科学理论为指导,定性分析与定量方法相结合,运用“高效解”优化理论实现规划方案的遴选。我们认为,为使规划建立在科学的基础上,就必须通过一些模型对未来作出预测。因此。

Based on practical experience in regional planning, this paper discusses methodology of building regional aggregate econometric forecasting model and discribes Yueyang county aggregate econometirc forecasting model (including basic clue of building model, equations and their explanations, etc). Applying the model, we give a practical forecast and analysis of Yueyang county national income and per capita national income.