东北亚近100年降水变化及未来10～15年预测研究

Study on Precipitation Variability in Last 100 Years and Trend Prediction in Northeast Asia in Future 10～15 Years

利用中国北方22个站点降水观测资料,检验了英国东英格兰大学气候研究中心的CRU05降水资料的可信度,与同类资料相比,该套资料具有较高的时间和空间分辨率。分析发现,20世纪中国东部地区和20世纪中后期西部地区的降水资料具有较高的可信度。利用这套资料分析了东北亚地区近100年降水变化规律,发现中国北方年降水量普遍存在3年、10年和30年左右的周期振荡,20世纪的几个主要干旱时期和多雨时期是由于降水的年际变化和年代际变化共同影响的结果,特大干旱都是发生在降水年代际变化的少雨时期和年际变化的少雨时期同时出现的阶段。将东北亚降水划分为10个主要区域,即中亚及北疆区、华北及西北东部区、蒙古中北部区、河西走廊及蒙古西部区、黑龙江东部区、大兴安岭西部区、中亚北部区、南疆及柴达木盆地区、东北南部区和阿尔泰山北部区。分析还发现,中国北方的干旱半干旱区不是孤立的,它与蒙古干旱区和中亚干旱区连在一起。在主要振荡周期分析的基础上,对中国北方未来10～15年降水变化趋势做了预测研究。

The reliability of CRU05 precipitation dataset constructed by Climatic Research Unit of University of East Anglia of United Kingdom is examined using the precipitation data of twenty two observation stations in north of China. Comparing with the same data, this new dataset has higher spatial and-longer temporal resolutions than other similar datasets, which has high quality in the East China in last 100 years and in the west of China in last 70 years. We use this dataset to analysis the precipitation variability in Northeast Asia, it is found that there are 3, 10 and 30 year prominent oscillation periods. Interannual and interdecadal oscillation periods play an important role in the drought and rainy periods in the last 100 years. the precipitation of Northeast Asia was divided into ten regions, including (I) middle Asia and north of Xinjiang, (II) north China and east of Northwest China, (III) north and middle of Mongolia, (IV) Hexi Corridor and west of Mongolia, (V) east of Heilongjiang river, (VI) west of Daxing'anling Mountain, (VII) north of Middle Asia, (VIII) south of Xinjiang and Chaidamu basin, (IX) south of Northeast China, and (X) north of Altai Mountain. It was found that the arid and semi-arid areas in North of China are not isolated, and connected with the arid areas of Mongolia and Middle Asia. In addition, basing on the analysis of prominent oscillation periods, the trends of precipitation in north of China in the future 10～15 years were discussed.