限制预测的体制诠释

An Institutional Explanation of Restricted Prediction

领导者的预测能力———一个古老却又常谈常新的话题。本文从新的视角,对开放社会条件下领导者预测能力的内涵作了界定。本文认为,由于领导者所承担的责任,使其预测能力成了一种保障;由于环境的变化,使整个社会各种资源的配置愈加依赖领导者的预测能力。然而,社会体制所具有的天然限制性阻碍着领导者预测能力趋向合理性、多元性、超前性与创新性,但这并不能成为评判预测好坏的标准。文章独辟蹊径,挖掘出社会体制对预测限制的有序规则的正面效应,提出追求预测体制的有序规则有助于提高科学预测的贡献质量及决策依据成功使用的概率。

This paper defines the connotation of the leader's predictive ability in a new pespective in an open societyBecause of the responsibity the leader takes,his or her predictive ability becomes a kind of guarantee and due to the changes of environment,the allocation of resources depends on the leader's predictive ability ever increasinglyHowever,various social institutions naturally prevent the leader's ability from becoming reasonable,pluralistic,predictive and innovative,but this caanot become the criterium of judging the leader's predictive abilityThe paper,developing a new style,digs up the positive effect of social institution in restricting prediction,pointing out that pursuing sequential rule of prediction system will be helpful in improving the contributon quality of scientific prediction and in increasing the probability of the use of decision basis