蒙特卡罗技术在工程成本预测中的应用

The application of Monte Carlo simulation on project cost forecasting

对工程施工成本的不确定性进行了研究,根据各分项工作成本符合β分布的特征,提出了用蒙特卡罗技术对工程施工成本进行模拟的方法、步骤以及实现某计划成本值的风险计算方法,其结果有助于施工企业的成本风险决策与控制.

This paper studies the uncertainty of engineering construction cost. According to the character that subentry work accords with β distribution, the Monte Carlo simulation method and process for project construction cost forecasting is proposed. A calculation method of cost risk under a planed figure is given. The result is useful to the decision-making and control of cost risk for construct corporations.