铁路提速对民航客运影响的实证分析

Demonstration Analysis on the Effects of Creating the Train Velocity to Civil Aviation′s Passenger Traffic

利用铁路系统 5次提速前后国内各民航机场旅客运输量的综列数据,通过对处理综列数据方法的经济计量学模型的估计和实证分析,得出如下结论:尽管我国民航旅客运输量在近几年不断攀升,但这是由于国内生产总值高速增长即经济快速发展的结果,若排除国内生产总值快速增长的影响因素进行分析,铁路提速对民航客运量的影响实际上是下降了。

Using the panel data of our country aerodrome ′s passenger number before and during the five train velocity creating ,and the demonstration analysis to econometrics model by the way using panel data,drawing the conclusion as follows:although the number of civil aviation′s passenger has creased, this is the result of high speed of GDP creating.If we remove the affection of the high speed of GDP,the number of civil aviation′s passenger has declined because of the creating of the train velocity.