当前经济形势实证分析及政策建议

Empirical Analysis for Current Economic Position and Policy Suggestion

近一段时期 ,关于经济是否过热的的问题是人们关注的重点之一。本文搜集近 2 0年来的资料 ,运用BinaryLogistic回归模型对我国 2 0 0 2、2 0 0 3及 2 0 0 4年第一季度宏观经济运行状况与过去 2 0年曾经发生的三次通货膨胀的基本状况进行比较 ,认为中国当前经济增长不是全面过热 ,而是国民经济恢复性增长的常态 ,这预示着我国新一轮经济增长周期的开始。针对当前经济发展中出现的局部过热问题 ,未来一段时期内 ,我国的宏观政策选择应兼顾保护现在宏观经济的良好态势和预防通货膨胀两方面 ,也就是说 ,既要保持政策的相对稳定和连续性 ,又要适度进行调整。

Recently, the discussion on the overheated economic growth is becoming popular for people. The paper collects full and accurate data of these latest 20 years, and by using the Binary Logistic regression model, compares the macro economic condition of the year 2002, 2003 and the first quarter of the year 2004 of China with the basic situation of the inflation which has continuously happened three times in the past 20 years. Based on this point, the paper considers that the economic growth nowadays should not be thought to be completely overheated. Instead, it is a normal condition of the national economic resuming growth and predicts the beginning of a new round of economic growth in China. Focusing on the partially overheated problems in the recent economic development, the paper argues that: in a period of time in the future, the macro policies should be concerned with preventing inflation as well as protecting the good condition of the macro economy nowadays. That is to say, not only should we keep the relative stability and continuity, but also we should adjust it appropriately.