汇率超调模型与人民币汇率制度选择

Exchange Rate Overshooting and Choice of RMB Exchange Rate System

汇率超调模型说明 ,均衡汇率的形成符合购买力平价理论。从长期角度分析 ,均衡汇率的决定取决于相对经济实力。我国虽然GDP稳步增长 ,但长期遗留的国情决定了我国的经济实力同发达国家相比差距仍然很大。因此 ,任由人民币随预期浮动升值为时尚早。从长远看 ,人民币汇率制度的改革方向是逐步实现人民币自由兑换 ,并增加人民币汇率的弹性和灵活性 ;从中短期分析 ,应完善人民币汇率的形成机制 ,实现以市场供求为基础的有管理的浮动汇率制。

Exchange rate overshooting indicates that the formation of equilibrium exchange rate accords with the theory of purchasing par value. Analyzed from the long-term point of view, the decision of equilibrium exchange rate depends on relative economic strength. China's GDP has been increasing steadily, but the the long-time carry-over situation of our country determines that there is still a big gap between China and developed countries. Therefore, it's early for RMB free appreciation with expected floating. From the long-term point of view, the way for RMB reform is gradual convertibility and addition to its the elasticity and agility. From the point of view of middle and short term, the formation mechanism of RMB should be perfected to realize managed floating exchange rate based on market supply and demand.