重新审视进口在经济增长中的作用——基于中国的实证研究

Reconsidering the Role of Import Played in Economic Growth——Based on an Empirical Research of China

理论上,进口与经济增长间存在着一定程度的互为因果关系。但长期以来,我国政界和学界表现出高度重视出口在经济增长中的作用,而低估甚至忽视进口对经济增长的推动作用的倾向。本文认为,无论是从进口发展与GDP增长的经验数据还是从进口影响经济的经济学逻辑的角度分析,都无法获得充分的证据支持出口贸易在推动经济增长中的重要性要胜过进口贸易的观点,同时,通过对我国1980-2003年的进口贸易与经济增长数据的协整分析,指出了进口贸易在经济增长中的重要作用及其传导机制。

Theoretically, there exists a mutual cause-and-effect relationship between import and economic growth. However, it appears there is a strong tendency of underestimating or neglecting the role of import played in economic growth process but over -emphasis put on export in both the government decision-making process and academic circles in China. In this thesis, the author argues that there exists no evidence to support the viewpoint that export is much more important than import in economic growth. Based on the cointegration test between China's data of import and economic growth from 1978 to 2003, the author makes recognition of the important role played by import in economic growth and its transmitting mechanism.