水体扩散衍生公式在环境风险评价中的应用

Application of extended waterbody diffusion formulate to environmental risk assessment

在多种水体扩散模型基础上,通过数学推导,得出一整套适用于鉴别与评估水环境突发事故危害后果的定量估算公式,内容包括:危险源鉴别、特征等浓度线确定、事故特征危害区与危害期估算、事故下游各处危害期估算等,也可用于直接求取事故危害任意浓度等值线精确的时、空位置及其特征点位置。作为各种水体扩散模型的衍生公式,使用条件与原模型相同,使用方便,结果精确,可广泛应用于风险工程设计、风险工程保险、环境风险评价、环境风险管理、环境影响评价与环境规划等领域。

Based on various waterbody diffusion model and the strict mathematic deduction, a modeling system (quantitative estimation model) is developed to identify and estimate the harm effect on the accidents in water environment, whose contents include the identification of dangerous source, the estimation of the thick degree line of the characteristic endangered area and endangered period of an accident, and estimation of the endangered period for backward position of the accident, and the like, and the calculation of any concentration isoline's rigor time-space location and specific pot location. As the extended formulate of the various waterbody diffusion model, it has the same conditions, and is easy to use with exact results. It can be applied broadly to the dangerous engineering design and engineering insurance, the environmental risk assessment and management, the environmental impact assessment, the environmental planning, etc.