基于区域发展目标下的水资源承载能力研究

Study on water resources carrying capacity based on regional development goals

从承载力研究的根本性问题出发对水资源承载能力进行了探讨,认为水资源承载能力不再是一个客观内在的值,而是受区域发展目标所影响,随区域发展目标不同而变化,水资源承载能力研究必须置于具体的区域发展目标下进行。据此选取目标规划法作为水资源承载能力的量化方法,并以北京市为实例进行论证,分析了北京市在预定发展目标下水资源承载能力及目标实现状况。

This paper discusses and analyzes the essence of water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) of the radical carrying capacity questions. The WRCC, unlike other carrying capacity being the objective and internal value, is affected by the regional development goals, and alters under the different development goals. Accordingly, the study on WRCC must be carried out under concrete regional development goals. Therefore, this paper employs goal programming as the quantitative method of WRCC and takes Beijing as a study case, and calculates and analyzes the WRCC and goals realization under the expected development goals. The results show that the expected economic, social and environmental development goals in 2005 can not be achieved totally because of the condition restriction of water resources. The expected development goals in 2010 can be achieved basically due to the improvement of local water resources exploitation and utilization and water supply from the middle route water transfer project of the south-to-north water transfer projects, and the social and economic sizes can be consolidated by means of water resources 11833 thousand people and 473.27 billion RMB GDP. To solve the inconsistency between water resources carrying capacity and development goals, the population, on the one hand, should be controlled; the water consumption effectiveness should be improved; and the industrial structure should be optimized. On the other hand, the expected development goals should be adjusted according to actual situation.