防洪体系系统风险评估模型研究

Systematic risk evaluation model for flood-control system

防洪体系系统风险评估方法研究是当前几个难点和关键问题之一。根据系统可靠度理论,定义了防洪体系的失事序列,基于失事序列建立了防洪体系系统风险评估模型,以算法形式给出了主要失事序列的通用识别方法,建立防洪体系的主要失事树。并根据防洪体系系统风险评估模型的特点,采用有效的限界措施改进了识别算法,提高了识别过程的计算效率。通过算例研究表明,由于自然风险转移和人为风险转移的作用,重要工程对防洪体系系统风险的贡献远比单独评估工程自身得到的风险小。

The systematic risk evaluation of flood-control system is one of the most difficult and important issues in the domain of flood-control study. According to the system reliability theory, a failure sequence of flood-control system is defined, based on which, a systematic risk evaluation model for flood-control system is established. A general method for identifying the main failure sequences is advanced in algorithm form, and the main fault tree of flood-control system is built. Moreover, according to the characteristics of the systematic risk evaluation model, the identification algorithm is improved through the effective bounding measures, and the computational efficiency is improved largely. Finally, through an example, the study shows that the systematic risk attributed to an important structure is much less than the risk of the structure itself because of the natural risk transfer and the artificial risk transfer.