空中交通管制中人的可靠性模糊综合评价研究

Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation of Human Reliability in Air Traffic Control

人是空中交通管制系统中最灵活、最具适应性和最有价值的因素 ,而其行为也是最易受到不利影响的。由于空中交通管制中产生的人为失误 ,往往会导致航空器空中危险接近 ,严重的后果甚至会酿成空难。笔者从人 -机 -环境系统工程的观点出发 ,提出了空中交通管制中人的可靠性评价的指标体系结构模型。从人自身因素、软件、硬件、环境等方面指出了影响空中交通管制中人的可靠性的心理、空中环境等 17个子因素。运用模糊数学的方法 ,建立空中交通管制中人的可靠性定量评价模型 ,并用实例进行了验证。研究表明 ,该方法应用于空中交通管制中人的可靠性评价是一种新的尝试 ,其评价结果可为各级领导机构提供航空安全管理的决策依据。

Human being is the most flexible, adaptive and valuable part in air traffic control (ATC) system and is most vulnerable to disadvantageous effect. In ATC system, human error may lead to aircraft approaching to danger, and even more serious, it may lead to air crash. From the view of man-machine-environment system engineering, the structure model of indicator system for evaluating human reliability in ATC is suggested. 17 factors pertaining psychology and air environment influencing the human reliability of ATC are described from human itself, software, hardware and environment. Using fuzzy synthetic evaluation theory, the quantitative evaluation model for human reliability in ATC is established and exemplified. It is shown that the method introduced is a new attempt in evaluation of human reliability in ATC system. The evaluation result might be used by commandership of ATC system as the criteria in decision-making.