矿井瓦斯涌出量预测的灰色建模法

Grey Method for Predicting Gas Outburst in Mine

简要介绍了瓦斯涌出量的常用预测方法 ,指出了各种预测方法的弊端 ,从矿山实际出发 ,把非等间距数列变为等间距数列 ,根据灰色理论提出的预测方法 ,利用不同采深瓦斯涌出量的原始数据建立矿井瓦斯涌出量的动态GM(1,1)模型 ,进行瓦斯涌出量预测 ,选择了合理的误差检验模型 ,并通过实例说明了GM(1,1)模型在预测瓦斯涌出量中的应用 ,结果表明预测程度较高。对矿井延深做好瓦斯涌出量预测并进行矿井安全生产具有很好的指导意义。

The routine methods for predicting gas outburst are briefly introduced and their drawbacks pointed out. By turning the unequal interval array into equal interval array to predict gas outburst in mine, and referring to grey system prediction method, the dynamic GM (1, 1) model is set up, in which the initial data of gas outburst in different depth are used. The model is exemplified with a realistic case. By choosing the rational error test model, the prediction result is rather preferable showing good guidance in predicting gas outburst when extending the mining depth and realizing mine safety.