基于路段相关的路网行程时间可靠性

Travel Time Reliability in Road Network Associated with Road Section

受自然、人为灾害等偶发事件以及日常的交通供需矛盾的影响 ,道路网运行效率下降 ,行程时间波动且不确定。为此 ,笔者分析了能够表征路网应对行程时间变化和承受波动的能力的指标———行程时间可靠性及其定义、特性、表达。针对路段之间的相互影响模式所适应条件的不同 ,按场景将其关系分成不相互影响、同步影响以及弱影响 3种模式。利用MonteCarlo法进行模拟 ,得出不考虑路段相关性 ,会高估路网的可靠性 ,减少路段间相互影响 ,有利于降低破坏事件对路网的影响程度和范围。考虑路段相关的行程时间可靠性应用于实际路网路径选择 ,可以增加选择的合理性和准确性 ,实现安全、可靠、高效运营。

Under the impact of natural and man-made incidents and the gap between supply and demand, the travel efficiency usually is degraded, and travel time varies. The indicator, travel time reliability, designated for endurance of variation and the ability to cope with the variation is analyzed, of which the definition, characteristics and expression are discussed. Since the ability to cope with different mode of incidents is different in different road section, the situations are classified into three categories, i.e. not correlatively effect, synchronous effect and slight effect. Monte Carlo method is applied for simulation. The results conclude that if the correlation of different road section is not considered, the reliability would be overestimated. If the correlative impact is reduced, it would be beneficial to reduce the deterioration impact on the road network. If the travel time reliability is applied to route choice in road network, the accuracy and rationality of selection would be increased realizing safety, reliability and efficient operation.