水资源对区域社会经济发展的支撑能力研究——以济南市长清区为例

Load-carrying Capacities of Regional Water Resource For Social and Economic Development

水资源支撑能力即在当前技术水平条件下 ,某一区域水资源对区域发展总体目标的支撑限度。该文以系统动力学理论为指导 ,对长清区水资源的支撑能力进行了分析。拟定出在水资源约束条件下的三个区域发展方案 ,即 :(1)水资源投资控制 ;(2 )工业增长速度控制 ;(3 )污水回用率控制。仿真结果分析表明 ,以方案 (3 )的适用性较好 ,在水资源投资不断增加 ,投资比例趋于合理的情况下 ,水资源对社会经济发展的支撑能力将由 2 0 0 2年的 0 .98提高到 2 0 10年的 1.0。

The supporting capacity of water resources equal to the supporting limit of water resources to the developmental total target in some region under the current technology conditions.Conducted by the system dynamics theory, this article analyzes the supporting capacity of water resources in Changqing district and studies out three regional developmental programs under the water resources restriction.They are the water resources investment control, the industry increase control and the reclaimed water treatment control.The emulation result suggests the applicability of the third program is the best. With the water resources investment gradually increasing and the investment ratio tending to reasonable, the supporting capacity of water resources to the social and economic development will increase from the 0.98 in 2002 to 1.0 in 2010.