影响英镑中长期汇率的因素分析

determinants of the medium and long-term Pound Sterling exchange rate

近期来,英镑兑美元汇率表现出明显的强势。该文分析了英镑升值的原因,同时,通过进一步分析中长期政府行为及经济基本面发展趋势,指出目前英镑存在一定程度的高估。从中长期来看,英镑汇率将调整到一个合理的水平,英镑对美元会有适度的贬值,但对欧元将呈现出强势。

This paper analyzes the reasons for the recent strong Pound Sterling against the US Dollar.With a further analysis of medium and long-term government activities and economic fundamentals,the paper then points out that the Pound Sterling is currently somewhat over-valued.In the medium and long run,its exchange rate will adjust to a reasonable level with the Pound Sterling depreciating against the US Dollar,while performing well against the Euro.