亚洲金融危机后人民币汇率泡沫的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of RMB Exchange Rate Foam After the Asian Financial Crisis

1997年爆发的亚洲金融危机导致人民币汇率泡沫的产生和扩大。试图用定量分析的方法对此作一实证研究。首先给出汇率泡沫的概念 ,把问题归结为均衡汇率的求解 ,在借鉴现有研究成果的基础上 ,构建了人民币均衡汇率模型 ,并实证计算出近 1 0年来的人民币均衡汇率 ,从而证实了人民币汇率泡沫的存在。汇率泡沫不会永远存在 ,一旦破灭 ,会给一国金融体系甚至整个国民经济带来灾难性后果。因此 ,应该考虑对人民币名义汇率进行贬值。

The Asian financial crisis in 1997 had a tremendous impact on the exchange rate of RMB. As a result, the RMB exchange rate foam has taken place and spread. This article tries to do an empirical study concerning it by means of quantitative analysis. Based on the research achievements acquired, the article establishes a RMB equilibrium exchange rate model, and empirically figures out the RMB equilibrium exchange rates in recent 10 years, which confirms the existence of the RMB exchange rate foam in term of quantitative analysis. The exchange rate foam won't exist forever. Whenever it breaks, it can cause catastrophic damage to the national economy, therefore the depreciation of the nominal exchange rate of RMB should be taken into account.