复合生态系统动态足迹分析

Analysis of complex ecosystem dynamic ecological footprint (ecological historical records)

由 Rees W E.于 1992年提出、由 Wackernagel M.于 1996年完善的生态占用 (生态足迹 )原理与方法 ,其主要成果是评价出全球 5 2个有代表性的国家和地区的生态占用盈亏情况 ,进一步得出全球人均生态占用阈值为 1.74 hm2 (量纲 ,下同 )、基准值为 2 .0 hm2 ,而人均实际生态占用为 2 .4 hm2 ,人均生态赤字达 0 .4 hm2 以上 ,评价结果表明全球生态环境进入了危机阶段 ,因此具有重要的预警战略意义。但是该方法也存在一些不足之处 ,如 :(1)主要是反映自然生态系统承载力 ,未能全面反映出社会经济反馈力 (人力、物资、资金、管理等方面的投入效用 ) ,尤其是忽略了现代科学技术在提高复合生态系统承载力方面的巨大作用和贡献 ;(2 )将各生态类型加权抽象化后所得到的等量化综合指标 ,难于反映复合生态系统要素与要素间的复杂变化规律 ;(3)最初创建的方法未反映动态变化情况 :(4 )新开发的 4种时间序列的方法 ,仍不能反映复合生态要素间生动地相关关系。针对以上主要缺陷 ,旨在将复合生态系统进行要素分解 ,进行要素与时间相关分析及要素间动态相关分析。将社会经济冲击力、自然生态环境资源承载力及社会经济科学技术反馈力三者相结合进行分析综合性研究的基础上 ,于 2 0 0 2年创建了复合生态系统动态足迹 (生态?

The principle and method of ecological footprint was proposed by W E Rees in 1992 and promoted by M Wackernagel in 1996. Ecological footprint method was applied in 52 representative countries and regions and the calculating results showed whether one country was in the state of ecological deficit or in the state of ecological remainder. The average ecological footprint threshold of the world was 1.74hm^2 per person, the norm ecological footprint was 2.0 hm^2 per person, the actual average ecological footprint was 2.4 hm^2 per person, the ecological deficit was over 0.4 hm^2 per person. These results indicated the global ecological environment has been in the state of crisis, thus had important significance to be warned early.However, the traditional method had also some shortcomings, for example: (1) it mainly reflected the natural ecosystem capacity, but did not reflect the social and economical feedback capacity (such as the effect of human resources, material, capital and management), especially the great contribution of the modern science and technology to increase the complex ecosystem biocapacity; (2) it summed the area of each land use which had been transformed with the yield factor and equivalence factor, but the final area index can't indicate the complicated relationship between the factors of the ecosystem; (3) the original method was not able to show the dynamic changes; (4) the four newly developed methods were based on the time series, but were also not able to show the relationship between the factors of the ecosystem.Owing to the withdraws of the traditional ecological footprint method above, we developed a new method which divided the complex ecosystem into factors to analyze how each factor changed according to time and analyze the dynamic relationship between the factors. We integrated the social and economical impact, natural eco-environmental biocapacity and scientific and technological feedback capacity together to do the research more comprehensively, and developed the principle, method and the case study of the complex ecosystem dynamic ecological footprint (ecological historical record) in 2002. Because the social and economic impact on natural ecosystem, natural eco-environmental biocapacity, and scientific and technological feedback capacity changed with time, it was necessary to carry out the correlation analysis between them.First we analyzed how the single factor of the complex ecosystem changed with time and how double factors changed with time. Base on this, we established the dynamic relationship among the social and economical impact, natural eco-environmental biocapacity and scientific and technological feedback capacity.The basic principle of the dynamic relationship was that the average ecological requirement per person (I/P)should less than or equal to the complex ecosystem biocapacity (I'/P). The average ecological requirement per person reflected the social and economical impact on natural ecosystem, the complex ecosystem biocapacity equaled to the ecological space (unit: km^2) per person (E/P)multiplied by product yield per km^2(I'/E). Let the E/P be the transverse axis and I'/E the vertical axis, the points in the figure was I/P; the series of I/P theoretical isoline constituted the norm complex ecosystem biocapacity or series of standard curves of complex ecosystem biocapacity.The functions of relationship figure above included: (1) based on the theoretical research and analysis, the norm complex ecosystem biocapacity or series of standard curves of complex ecosystem biocapacity could be obtained; (2) based on the analysis of the historical statistical data, the dynamic change curve of each ecological factor related to complex ecosystem could be drawn; (3) one could carry out the static and dynamic assessment on the social and economical impact, the norm complex ecosystem biocapacity or series of standard curves of complex ecosystem biocapacity; (4) one could carry out the assessment on how the scientific and technological feedback capacity increase the complex ecosystem b