2002年:北京150年来自然物候最为异常的年份

2002: The Most Abnormal Year of Phenology in Beijing for the Last 150 Years

根据对北京 2 0 0 2年自然物候观测资料的分析发现 :2 0 0 2年北京自然物候具有2 0 0 1～ 2 0 0 2年度冬季短且暖 ,2 0 0 2年春早且暖、夏热且长、秋短且凉 ,2 0 0 2～ 2 0 0 3年度冬季初冬冷的特点。与北京过去 1 50年春季自然物候变化的对比分析发现 ,2 0 0 2年北京的冬暖和春早水平创 1 50年来的最高纪录。虽然 2 0 0 2～ 2 0 0 3年北京入冬日期与多年平均相当 ,但从北京过去 1 50年自然物候的长期变化趋势看 ,近年北京出现的冬暖春早还难以回复到平均状态。

The phenological features in Beijing in 2002 are discussed based on phenological observations. And the conclusions are drawn as follows. The phenoseason and phenodate in 2002 is the most abnormal in Beijing for the last 150 years. Compared with the phenology for normal year, it suggests that the former-winter (2001—2002) of 2002 is short and warm, spring is early so the phenodate advance obviously, summer is hot and long, autumn is cool and short, the later-winter (2002—2003) is cold at the beginning of the winter. Compared with the phenodate in spring for the last 150 years in Beijing, it suggests that the warm winter and advanced spring in 2002 is the most obvious in the last 150 years in Beijing. Although the beginning date of winter between 2002 and 2003 is the same as that of normal years, the warm winter and advanced spring in recent future will still remain a certain period derived from the changing trend of spring phenodate in Beijing for the last 150 years.