中国暴雨泥石流危险性区划

Rapid Assessment of Rainstorm Debris Flow Hazard in China

泥石流是一种典型的突发性泥沙灾害,而中国是暴雨泥石流多发的国家之一.基于全国县市行政区的暴雨泥石流形成条件数据,运用突发性泥沙灾害危险性快速区划方法可以有效地进行中国暴雨泥石流危险性区划.区划结果按照泥石流危险度分为高、较高、中、较低、低五类区.文中对区划结果的合理性进行了解释,通过敏感性分析说明了该方法的稳定性,最后将区划结果与采用其他区划方法获得的结果进行了比较并通过相似性和t 检验间接验证了该方法的准确性.

There are different types of debris flows. However, the rainstorm debris flow is one of the major abrupt sediment hazards in China. Using the new approach developed for rapid abrupt sediment hazard assessment, the entire China is zoned into five kinds of regions, classified in terms of different degrees of hazard, i. e. very high, high, medium, low and very low. The results are well interpreted based on a county-based database of debris flow causative conditions. A sensitivity analysis demonstrates the robustness of the proposed approach. Comparisons between the zonations produced by the proposed approach and other methods are carried out by similarity analysis and paired-sample t-test. The accuracy of the approach is indirectly validated.