基于粗糙集和神经网络的空军航材消耗预测方法

Forecasting method for air force aerial material consumption based on rough sets theory and neural network

针对空军航空器材消耗受某些影响因素的冗余性、非定量性以及消耗预测模型中很难体现问题 .分析了影响航材消耗的因素 ,利用粗糙集知识约简方法去除冗余 ,选择主要影响航材消耗的因素 ,利用神经网络建立消耗预测模型 .最后对该模型的预测效果与直接神经预测的效果进行了比较 ,显示了该模型的有效性和实用性 ,为航材消耗预测提供了一种新的有效决策方法 .

As some influence factors are hard to be considered in the forecasting models of the air force aerial material consumption, this paper analyzes the influence fa ctors of air material consumption, chooses the main influence factors based on a ttributes reduction of rough sets, and proposes a consumption forecasting model by using neural network. Through an example of the air tyre forecasting, the sim ulation results reveal the efficiency and practicality of this method.