中国21世纪刑事犯罪趋势预测

Criminal Tendency Prediction of the 21st Century in China

在人口大幅度增加的情况下 ,我国刑事犯罪的发展总趋势是刑事案件发案绝对数和犯罪率上升。国家的政治形势和经济状况是决定刑事犯罪走向的主导因素 ,而文化、道德、人口、防控、打击等各种因素也对其具有综合影响 ,预测2 1世纪刑事犯罪发展趋势为近期稳中有升 ,中长期增势减缓 。

The nation's political and economic conditions are the main factors to decide the criminal trend,while,civilization,morality,population,charge protection,verberation and so on have overall effects on crimes,too. According to the prediction,the tendency of the crimes in the 21st century will rise on the basis of stability in recent time. The increasing trend will slow in the mid term and long term. The rising will replace the falling.