地质灾害风险评价方法及展望

Method and prospect of geological disaster risk assessment

地质灾害评价方法很多,20世纪70年代以前以定性评价为主,70年代以后发展为半定量、定量评价。文章概述了地质灾害的风险评价方法、评价体系、评价过程。地质灾害风险评价具有良好的应用前景,并逐渐向着评价定量化、综合化,管理空间化的方向发展。风险评价是风险管理和减灾管理的基础,其成果可以为国土资源规划,重要工程选址,地质灾害治理、监测、预报以及制定救灾应急措施和保护环境提供科学依据。

There are many risk assessment ways to geological disaster.Before 1970' s,the assessment method was mainly qualitative analysis,and later,the assessment ways was developing to halfquantitative or quantitative analysis. This article sums up the assessment ways, systems and process about the risk of geological disaster. Risk assessment will be widely applied and tend to quantitative, integrative and spacial management in the future. Risk assessment is the basis of risk management and disaster reduction management. Assessment results can provide scientific data for planning land resource, selecting site of important engineering, forecasting and controlling geological disaster, making emergency measures and preventing environment destruction.