Fuzzy综合评估聚类法分区预报二代棉铃虫发生量

FORECASTING THE OCCURRENCE POPULATION OF SECOND GENERATION BOLLWORM IN DIFFERENT AREAS BY FUZZY COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION CLASSIFICATION

本文从观测数据不齐全,而实践经验丰富的角度出发,采用Fuzzy综合评估的方法,凭实践经验,组成单因子关系矩阵进行加权处理,给出多因子综合相似矩阵,然后用Fuzzy聚类分析,将某地区的二代棉铃虫集合的某些元素与发生程度等级集合的某一元素聚为一类,即可作出分区预报.不仅提供了一种新的Fuzzy分析预测病虫方法,且解决了过去凭实践经验无法运算的问题.

The method of Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation could be adopted when observed data are incomplete but having abundant practical experience. On the basis of practical experience, the single factor relative matrix is composed.While it is treated by weighting, the multifactor comprehensive relative matrix is obtained. Then by Fuzzy classification analysis, certain factors of second generation bollworm muster of a certain area and a certain factor of grade muster of its occurrence population are classified into the same kind. So forecastint could be made. It is a new improved Fuzzy analytical method for forecasting agricultural diseases and pests,which could be adopted when lack of complete data and having practical experience.