货币中性问题在中国的实证研究及政策意义

The Empirical Research and the Policy Significance of the “Monetary Neutrality”in China

本文对货币中性问题的理认和实证研究进行了简略的回顾。通过使用Granger Sims因果关系检验法和误差修正模型来分析中国在 1985～ 2 0 0 1年间货币供给量与产出、物价之间的相互关系 ,发现货币供给具有一定的内生性的特点 ,货币供给量的变化无论在短期还是在长期将影响物价的变化 ,短期货币是非中性的 ,长期来看货币是中性的。因此货币政策的主要措施应该是利率调节 ,而不是货币供给量。货币政策的目标首先应该是稳定物价 ,在此基础上短期内可以适当地使用货币政策来促进经济的发展。

This paper reviews the literature and the empirical research of monetary neutrality.Via using Granger-Sims Causality Test and Error Correction Model to analyze the relationship among aggregate money supply,output price during 1985～2001 in China,the author find that the aggregate money supply is endogenetic,the changes of money supply affect the price either in long run or in short run,in the short run money is not neutral,while in the long run there exists monetary neutrality.The author argue that monetary policy should aim not at money supply,but at the interest rate,the tartet of monetary policy should be providing a stable monetary environment for the economy.