城市增长和城市环境退化的倒U形曲线研究——以长江三角洲为例

Inverted U Curve Study on Urban Growth and Urban Environmental Degradation——Evidence from Yangtze Delta

以长江三角洲作为实证研究对象,将倒U型曲线理论应用到城市增长和城市环境关系方面.定义城市人口增长为城市增长参数,所选择的回归项包括耕地面积、经济水平和环境质量参数.长江三角洲的实证研究表明城市环境参数和城市增长的各曲线拟合均出现两个转折点,环境变化情况和倒U型曲线的理论假设是完全符合的.在此基础上总结研究了城市增长和城市生态环境调控的政策,针对长江三角洲的情况提出了对策和建议.

The inverted U shape curve on the empirical study on the urban growth and environmental degradation in Yangtze Delta area were applied. Urban growth was defined as population growth while the environmental degradation was defined in several aspects, including the agricultural land, forest, waster gases and water discharge and incidence of disease. The results of the model simulation show that there are two turning points in urban growth process. It can prove that the growth patterns have great influence on the environmental quality change, consistent with the inverted U shape theory. The policy concerning the urban ecological regulation in Yangtze Delta is discussed in the paper based on the empirical study.