“发展—计划生育—生育率”的动态关系:中国省级数据再考察

The Development-Family Planning-Fertility Relationship in China: A Reexamination Using Provincial Level Data

顾宝昌在 1 987年利用省级数据考察了中国的生育率 ,通过路径分析得出社会经济发展和计划生育对中国生育率都有重要的直接影响的结论。李建民在 2 0 0 4年分析了我国低生育率的经济环境 ,提出 1 990年代我国生育率的下降应该主要是社会和经济发展的结果。基于这些结论或假设 ,本文利用中国省级数据 ,再次考察“发展—计划生育—生育率”关系 ,结果表明在过去 30年里 ,计划生育的作用在下降 ,而社会经济发展的作用在增强。 1 970年代计划生育的作用是主导 ,1 980年代计划生育与社会经济发展二者的作用基本达到了平衡 ,而 1 990年代社会经济发展的作用成为主导。“发展—计划生育—生育率”关系呈献出一种动态平衡。

The well-established fact in the literature of Chinese fertility studies is the extraordinarily rapid fertility decline within a very short period of time, while the controversial issue remains the way the decline has been achieved. This paper examines and discusses the Chinese fertility transition, re-assessing the development-family planning-fertility relationship over the past decades. The analysis using data at provincial level across time demonstrates a dynamic balance between socio-economic development and family planning in determining fertility decline. While both components are important, the family planning program played a dominant role in the first two decades of fertility transition; since 1990 socio-economic development has played a major role in the second fertility transition.