刑释人员人身危险性的测评研究

A Research on the Appraisal of the Personal Dangerousness of Persons Released After Completion of a Sentence

我们对上海市1994年至1999年所释放的全部约1万5千名上海籍刑释人员进行了详细调查,从中筛选出与重新犯罪 有显著相关关系的因素编制成《刑释人员个体人身危险性测评量表》,用多元回归分析方法预测刑释人员在获释后2年内的重新 犯罪情况,经检验,其准确率为92%。

After a detailed investigation of a total of about 15,000 native Shanghainese released after completion of a sentence from 1994 till 1999, we sorted out fifteen factors correlated to a repeated crime, and worked out the “Scale of Dangerous Individuals Released After Serving a Sentence”. We forecast an individul is likely to commit a new crime in two years with plurality regression. Testing showed that the accuracy rate we got was 92%.