中国货币政策有效性理论模型及经验实证

Model of the Validity of China's Monetary Policy and its Empirical Demonstration

货币政策有效性的标志既不是利率也不是货币供给量,而是货币政策目标及其实现程度。因此,可用货币政策目标作为解释变量建立中国货币政策有效性理论模型:Em=f(p')+f(y')+f(u'),并结合实际统计资料进行经验实证,进而对中国货币政策有效性作出客观评价。

The sign of the validity of the monetary policy is neither interest rate nor money supply, but the goal of monetary policy and its realization degree. Therefore, the goal of monetary policy can act as the explanatory variable in establishing the model of the validity of China's monetary policy: Em=f p′+ f y′+f u′. Then after the model is empirically demonstrated with actual statistical data, the validity of China's monetary policy is objectively evaluated.