用单站要素资料做短期暴雨客观预报

To Objective Forecast of the Short Range Rainstorm Based on the Change of Single Station Factor

通过对贺州市1971～2000年4～月逐日14时的温度(T)、水汽压(E)、本站气压(P)、露点温度(Td)等要素资料的研究得出一套较为实用的预报指标,并对2001～2004年进行检验,预报准确率达到40 6%。

Through analysis, summary, pattern type about the temperature(T), vapour pressure(E), single station air pressure(P) and dewdrop temperature(Td) at 14∶00 o′clock every day of the April～june during 1971～2000, found a set of more practical forecast index sign of short range rainstorm,and the test is done during 2001～2004,with an forecast accuracy rate of 40.7%, the practive of prediction confirms that the methods are effective for forecast of the short range rainstorm. The forecast methodscloud be realitied over the computer, it is automatic,objective, simple and easy.