中国有害赤潮预测方法研究现状和进展

Advances in Red Tide Prediction Method in China

根据近几年来有害赤潮研究的进展,介绍了几种有害赤潮预测方法,主要包括:经验预测法,如海水温度变动预测法、海水透明度法、赤潮生物光合活性法;统计预测法,如判别分析、主成分分析;数值模型预测法,如营养动力学模型和种群生长动力学模型。文中提出,鉴于目前各种有害赤潮预测方法的局限性和不确定性,以及有害赤潮灾害预测的迫切性,为了尽快建立起有效和可靠的有害赤潮预测方法,在开展预测方法的同时,必须加强赤潮发生机理研究和赤潮生消过程的现场监测,前者是建立预测方法的理论基础,而后者是预测方法建立的要资料基础。

Based on the advances in red tide researches in recent years, several kinds of red tide prediction method are introduced, and the methods mainly include the experimental prediction methods such as seawater temperature change prediction method, seawater transparency method and red tide organism photosynthetic activity method, the statistical prediction methods such as discriminant analysis and principle component analysis method, and numerical model prediction methods such as nutrient dynamics model and population growth dynamics model. It is suggested that in view of the limitation and uncertainness of present red tide prediction methods and the ugrency for the red tide disaster prediction, while developing the prediction method the study on red tide occurrence mechanism and the insitu mornitoring of red tide generation and dieoff process shall be strentthened to establish effective and reliable red tide prediction methods as soon as possilble, the study on occurrence mechanism is the theoretic basis for establishing the prediction methods, and the insitu monitoring provide necessary basis for establishing the prediction methods.