陕京二线输气管道风险预评价

Preliminary risk assessment of second Shaanxi-Beijing natural gas pipeline

采用 EST法对建设中的陕京二线输气管道进行了风险评价 ,得到了管道的高风险区段。通过对评价结果的分析 ,得出了造成各管段风险值较高的原因 ,并提出了相应控制措施。

The present paper has made a preliminary risk assessment of the Second Shaanxi-Beijing Natural Gas Pipeline. As is known, natural gas has been playing a more and more important role in the energy consumption of China. As one of the most convenient transportation modes, the new pipeline from Shaanxi to Beijing is named the second Shaanxi-Beijing pipeline. In order to guarantee the safety operation of the pipeline as well as to keep a steady energy supply to Beijing, the authors of this paper have done a lot of research on how to make the preliminary risk assessment of the pipeline. In doing so, the EST method has been adopted to assess the risk of the second pipeline, which is still under construction. Through a detailed risk assessment, the subsections prone to high potential risk are determined. Furthermore, the causes that are likely to lead to high-degree risks have also been thoroughly searched. According to the assessment results, the causes include natural ones, design faults and the third party destruction. Among all the potential damage causes, the geological disasters, slide, erosion, the third party destruction and design faults are the most likely ones. Aimed at a high reliability operation of the pipeline, some countermeasures for the determined risks are provided in the end of the paper.