煤矿安全预评价的集对分析模型及应用

Set pair analysis model and application for preliminary evaluation of coal mine safety

针对安全评价系统的复杂性 ,以集对理论为基础 ,进行了同、异、反分析 ,确定了煤矿安全预评价指标和各评价因素的联系度 ,建立了集对分析评价模型。对黄陵 2号矿井自然条件下的灾害预评价等级为 级 ,取得了与其他评价方法一致结果。评价结果表明 ,集对分析方法正确 ,计算简单。该方法用于煤矿安全预评价不仅包含了模糊综合法的特性 ,而且具有信息利用率高 ,评价结果可靠的优点。

The present article aims to introduce the authors' research on the set pair analysis(SPA) model and its application for coal mine safety evaluation. As is known, serious safety problems exist in coal mining industry both in China and in the other countries of the world. For decision-makers, unexpected hazards and potential risks in the mining process involves many unexpected factors, which makes the evaluation a multi-level and multi-index complicated decision-making system. For the time being, the method of coal mine safety evaluation has become a key problem in fundamental theoretical study for the sustainable production in coal industry. As one of the modern advanced management models, the application of the coal mine safety evaluation methods certainly has a profound influence on the safety production. Based on the study of the set pair analysis, the present paper has made an analysis of the main features of the complex decision-making process and the identical-discrepancy-contrary (IDC) system so as to establish the connection degree formula μ=a+bi+cj. Furthermore, the authors have also calculated the connection degree of evaluated factors and built up a new set pair analysis(SPA) model and the quantitative analysis model for every safety index. Later, we have taken No 2 Mine in Huangling as an experimental site through repeated trials in comparison with the other related methods. Preliminary results on the safety evaluation of the mining site accounts for grade 2, which indicates that SPA is conforming to the theory, simple and convenient in methods and appropriate in serviceability. It not only embodies the fuzzy synthetic properties, but can also utilize adequate information to gain the reliable evaluation results through mathematical calculation, thus able to provide a preliminary evaluation of coal mine safety.