生育与死亡转变对人口老龄化和老年抚养的影响被引量：15

The Effects of the Fertility and Mortality Transitions on the Elderly and Eldercare in China

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摘要上海、北京和天津市在20世纪都经历了生育率急剧下降和预期寿命大幅度上升。生育率和死亡率的这些变化形成并将继续形成大量的老年人口。文章分析了这三大城市及中国的老年人口状况和未来的增长趋势,并就中国及这三个城市的人口趋势对老年抚养的影响进行讨论。 The three municipalities in China, Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin experienced dramatic decreases in fertility and increases in life expectancy in the 20th century. These changes in fertility and mortality have produced, and will continue to produce, large proportions of elderly people. In this paper we present trend data and population projection data for Shanghai, Beijing, and Tianjin, as well as China. It shows that the dependency burdens on the producing populations of the three municipalities have increased from the past to the present (2000) and will become even heavier in the future ( up to 2040). It also shows that the transitions of elderly populations for Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin, andas well as for China, will have occurred very quickly. Finally we discuss some of the implications of trends for the care of the elderly populations in China and in these three municipalities.

作者鲍思顿顾宝昌罗华

机构地区美国得克萨斯A&M大学社会学系中国计划生育协会

出处《中国人口科学》 CSSCI 北大核心 2005年第1期42-49,共8页 Chinese Journal of Population Science

关键词中国北京增长趋势大城市上海天津人口老龄化老年死亡影响

分类号 C913.6 [经济管理]

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