多步预测的降水时序模型

MULTI—STEP PREDICTION MODEL OF TIME SERIES FOR PRECIPITATION

该文设计了一个能作多步预报的时间序列模型,先生成时间序列及其差分的均生函数,再运用双评分准则对所有均生函数延拓序列作粗选和精选,以期建立一个拟合和预报效果均好的模型。就长江中下游6—8月降水总量的序列进行了计算,证实该模型可用在制作逐年气候预报或分月长斯预报中。

A time series model for the multi—step prediction is proposed in the paper.Havingcalculated mean generating functions of the time series and its difference and thenscreening all extending series of the mean generating functions with the couple score cri-terion,the model which is well available for both the fitting and the forecast is built.Asan example,total precipitation during the period from June to August over the lowerand middle reaches of the Yangtse river is modeled.It is shown that the model proposedhere is useful for year—to—year climate prediction or month—to—month long—rangeweather forecast.