1991年江淮暴雨的定量预报检验

VERIFICATION OF QUANTITATIVE FORECASTS FOR STORM RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD OF CHANGJIANG-HUAIHE MEI-YU IN 1991

利用 Threat Score 方法,对1991年6月12—15日,6月29日—7月12日江淮持续暴雨的定量预报进行了检验。结果表明,对于大雨和暴雨预报,目前主观预报优于客观预报。数值预报在降雨定量预报的某些方面有了一定突破。

Threat Score is employed to verify the quantitative forecasts for the storm rainfallin the Changjiang-Huaihe region in the periods of June 12—15 and June 29—July 12,1991.The results suggest that the subjective forecast for the heavy rain and torrentialrain is better than the objective ones;numerical prediction has achieved significant im-provement in some aspects of forecasting precipitation.