有人为差错系统的危险性建模与量化研究

Hazard Model Establishment and Quantification in the System with Human Errors

根据可靠性理论建立了有人为差错情况下不可修复系统的失效模型。若与时间无关的人为差错概率已知,用此模型可进行有人为差错系统的失效分析。当人为差错概率是时间的函数时,用此模型可预测未来某一时刻有人为差错系统可能发生事故的危险性。为使所建模型具有实用性,探讨了人为差错的量化方法,提出将人为差错频率转化为差错率的计算公式,从而使所建模型用于系统危险性预测成为可能。

The failure models of irreparable system under the conditions of the human errors are established according to the reliability theory. If the probability of the human errors is known, these models can be used to analyze the failure of the system with human errors. If the probability of human errors is the function of time, these models can be used to predict the hazard possibility of the system at any given time in the future. In order to make the models more applicable, the quantification of human errors is discussed. A calculation method is proposed to convert the human error frequency into the human error rate. Therefore, the hazard of the system with human errors can be predicted on the basis of these mathematics models.