黑白仰鼻猴种群生存力初步分析

A Preliminary Analysis on Population Viability for Black-and-white Snub-nosed Monkeys (Rhinopithecus bieti)

根据黑白仰鼻猴 (Rhinopithecusbieti)的相关参数 ,借助漩涡模型 (Vortex 9 4 2 ) ,对黑白仰鼻猴的种群动态进行了模拟分析。结果表明 ,在没有近亲繁殖和偷猎影响的情况下 ,各亚种群 10 0年间均持续增长 ,即使数量较少的攀天阁和白济讯亚种群的灭绝概率也只有 3%和 6 %。在加入近亲繁殖和偷猎因素时 ,有 5个亚种群 (小昌都、乌牙普牙、金丝厂、富合山和格花箐 )保持增长态势 ,3亚种群 (茨卡通、各摩茸及响姑箐 )数量保持稳定 ,其他 5个亚种群 (米拉卡、巴美、龙马山、攀天阁和白济讯 )呈下降趋势。在其他条件相同的情况下 ,大的环境容纳量能够促进亚种群的增长 ,因此 ,保护生境是保护该物种的根本途径。偷猎对整个异质种群增长有负作用 ,所以杜绝偷猎发生是保护该物种的重要条件。近亲繁殖率随种群减小和时间推移逐渐增加 ,也对猴群的长期存活有负面影响。

Population dynamics of black-and-white snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus bieti) are simulated by simulation model Vortex 9.42 on the basis of their relative parameters. All subpopulation sizes can increase during the period of next 100 years without inbreeding depression and poaching, but Pantiange and Baijixun subpopulations which is smaller may extinct with possibilities of 3% and 6%. When inbreeding depression and poaching are considered, only sizes of 5 subpopulations (Xiaochangdu, Wuyapuya, Jinsichang, Fuheshan and Gehuaqing) increase, 3 (Cikatong, Gemorong and Xiangguqing) maintain stable, and the other 5 (Milaka, Bamei, Longmashan, Pantiange and Baijixun) decline. Population size of subpopulations with larger environmental capacity can increase faster when other parameters are close to the other subpopulations. Therefore, habitat protect should be emphasized for the long-term survival of the species. It is important to stop poaching because it has negative impacts on meta-populations. Inbreeding rate increases with time and smaller population size, it also has negative influences on the long term survival of the species.