菲利浦斯曲线失灵了吗?

Is Phillips Curve Unworkable?

本文通过分析原始菲利浦斯曲线和预期扩展的菲利浦斯曲线,指出:短期里,菲利浦斯曲线是一条向右下方倾斜的曲线;长期里,菲利浦斯曲线是一条垂线。菲利浦斯曲线并没有失灵,菲利浦斯曲线反映的是沿曲线的移动,而经验上所看到的“失业率上升,通货膨胀率上升”或“失业率下降,通货膨胀率下降”乃是菲利浦斯曲线移动的结果。就失业率与通货膨胀率的关系而言,“新经济”并不新。

In 1970s occurred stagflation in American economy,which is characterized by higher unemployment rate accompanied with higher inflation rate.But in 1990s Saw lower unemployment rate accompanied with lower inflation rate in American new economy.As a reoult,many uttered that there appeared the Phillips Curve failure while others thought it the characteristics of new economy.This paper,by analyzing the original and the anticipatory extended Phillips Curve,uereals that the Phillips Curve would shope downuard to the right in short run,yet remain avertical straight linge in long run.There is no phillips Curre failure,What happened is movement along the Phillips Curve while the empirical higher unemployment rate accompanying higher inflation rate,or lower unemployment rate accompanying lower inflation rate resultedfrom the shift of the Phillips Curve itself.In respect to the relationship between unemployment rate and inflation rate,new economy is nothing new.