关于深圳市能源规划中能源需求预测的若干问题

On the Energy Situation Forecasting in Shenzhen Before 2000

引言在制订能源规划工作中,最基本的一项内容就是对本地区未来能源需求进行预测。因为制订能源发展战略与能源对策等皆基于此。所以预测模型、参数选择等能否反映出本地区未来能源需求的实际情况十分关键。一般地说,能源需求与经济的发展、科技进步的程度、经济结构的变化以及人民生活水平的提高等诸多因素有关。因此,预测深圳市未来能源需求,首先需要分析深圳市在国内国际的地位、经济发展现状、特点和趋势等因素。在进行这项工作时。

This is a part of the work on Forecasting and Planning of the Energy Situation in Shenzhen Special Economic Zone before 2000 which was carried out by a team organized by the municipality. Some problems such as the local history data, the high speed economic development, the population, mathematics models and computer program are discussed in this paper. The problems and the methods to deal with them here should be great helpful to the other regions to carry on the similar work.