关于中国经济景气评定方法的探讨

A New Evaluation Method of Business and its Applications in China

1 引言根据景气环比C值来评定经济景气,德国与日本早就采用四景气区方法,台湾采用五景气区方法,国内引用了五景气区法,然而我们认为在理论、方法与方案上尚有重要问题待研究,例如:景气量选择、景气特征与规律、划分景气区的标准、监测预警系统的设计准则、景气的评分与综合以及预测的方法等。本文采用概率论、

This paper applies Census II method theory of probability and Test method etc. to analyze several Chinese economic series, and a new method and scheme for business evaluation. By using this method, many disadvantages in the relative international and domestic method can be avoided.