股票投资中的利润与风险预测

Forecasting of Income and Risk of Stock Investment

1 引言随着我国经济体制改革的不断深入,证券市场以其独特的功效在中华大地悄然兴起并迅速发展,股票作为一种促进企业转换机制的商品,一时间成为颇受社会青睐的投资选择。就投资者而言,看中的无非是股票的收益。它来自两个方面:一是股利;二是股价升降所带来的资本利得。股利的多寡取决于企业经营业绩的好坏;而股价变化却频繁难测。

The paper, based on the Shanghai stock market quotations, studied fluctuations of stock price index, proposed the period and probability of up-down trepd, forecasted the income and risk of stock investment for three different stock owner.