蛋鸡产蛋曲线的数学模型研究

Research on the Mathematical Models of Egg Production Curves in Chickens

本文利用线性模型、伍德模型和分室模型拟合了四川农大养鸡场6个纯系834只72周龄产蛋母鸡的产蛋率资料,并根据早期记录预测了全年总产蛋量.3种模型拟合的R^2值分别为0.8339,0.8448和0.9389,35周预测平均误差分别为30±12,-29.2±17,7.01±3个蛋,40周预测平均误差分别为11.6±5.5,-25.92±12和2.78±1个蛋.羽速对模型的拟合和预测效果无显著影响,不同类型之间存在差异,模型参数与产蛋率相关显著,批次、开产日龄和连产性状对模型的拟合效果均有显著影响.

The laying rate date of 6 pure strains 834 laying hens in the Chicken Farm of Sichuan Agricultural University was fitted by linear model, Wood model and compartmental model, and the total egg production was predicted from early part-record by these models. The R^2 values of these fitting were 0.8339, 0.8448, 0.9389 respectively. The predicting average errors in 35 week age were 30±12, -29.22±17, 7.01±3 eggs, and in 40 week age were 11.65±5.5, -25.92±12, 2. 78±1 eggs respectively. Feathering speed didn't affect the fitting and predicting results significantly, but the different types did significantly. The correlation between the parameters of models and the performance of egg production were significant or extremely significant. The hatching set, the age of the first egg and the sequence affected the R^2 values significantly.