第二代玉米螟灾变性长期预报模型及其应用

Long Period Forecasting Models of Grey Castastrophe of the Second Generation of Corn Borer and Its Application

本文应用灰色系统灾变理论，对山东省荷泽地区１９７６～１９９２年第二代玉米螟虫株率构成的离散数列进行数据处理，用微分方程进行拟合，建立了第二代玉米螟虫株率的灰色系统ＧＭ（１，１）长期预报模型。

Grey system theory and method were used. After the discrete data composed by the borer rate of the second generation of Corn Borer at Heze Prefecture, Shandong province during the years of 1982～1994 were processed and simulated with differential equation, long term predictive models GM(1,1) of grey catastrophe were set up. This will provide scientific basis for the plan of study and control on corn borer.