超越国家利益——探寻对20世纪90年代中美关系的知觉性解释

Beyond National Interests:Searching for a Perpetual Explanation for China-U.S. Relationship in the 1990s

在过去十年里 ,中美关系历尽波折。一个困扰许多观察家的问题是 :究竟中美关系可以用系统性变量加以解释 ,亦或它只是一系列力量相互作用而产生的随机性结果 ?本文力图超越现实主义观或曰“国家利益”取向对中美关系的解释 ,以期为理解中美关系提供一个知觉性的解释。基于社会心理学的研究 ,本文归纳出了数个分析性假设。通过对中美在 1995 - 1996年间台海危机时战略互动的个案例研究 ,作者对这些假设进行了验证 ,从而发现了导致危机不断升级的错误知觉的数个可能来源。在文章的最后 ,作者尝试归纳出一个解释国家间关系变化的分析框架。

Over the past decade, Americans and Chinese have witnessed numerous peaks and valleys in Sino-U.S. relations. The question that has puzzled many observers of this relationship is: Can Sino-U.S. relations be explained by a series of discrete, systemic variables? Or, is the relationship a random outcome of indeterminate forces? This paper, as an effort to go beyond the realpolitik view and 'national interests' approach, tries to provide a perceptual dimension of understanding the bilateral relationship. Hypotheses drawn from socio-psychological theories are tested through a detailed case study of Sino-U.S. strategic interactions during the 1995-1996 Taiwan Missile Crisis. The study identifies several possible sources of misperceptions that contributed to the escalation of the crisis. At the end of the article, the author proposes a framework for explaining relations between nations. By paying attention to the role of perceptions as they work within a system of other domestic political variables, this new framework helps to achieve some new understanding of the Sino-U.S. relationship during the 1990s.