体育多种预测方法的比较研究

Study on Manifold Forecast Methods in Physical Education

运用相关回归、标准百分和多级多类判别理论，建立多元回归和单元回归预测模型，所建立的１、２、３模型预测值准确度高，与实际专项成绩值的相关性显著、t检无差异、有显著的线性关系、tr检验呈高度相关。其中，2模型预测值的准确度更高，建模方法更具简便性、实效性。

This investigation exerts interrelated regression theory, standard percentage theory and multilevel and multi-species distinguishing theory, establish multiple factors regression and single factor regression forecast models. The forecast models １、 ２、 ３are superior to others. Firstly, their forecast expert grade values are closer to the actual values; secondly, they are prominent in interrelationship; thirdly, they have no difference in T-test ; in addition, they have distinct linear relationship; lastly, they have close correlation in T-test. The comparative analysis among the three forecast models show out that the 2 forecast model is better than １ and 3 in forecast accuracy, modeling method ,convenience and practicability.