我国森林工业伤亡事故发展态势预测及宏观综合因素特征分析

THE FORECAST AND THE ANALYSIS ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF COMPREHENSIVE MACRO FACTORS OF THE DYNAMICAL TREND OF CASUALTY ACCIDENT OF CHINA'S FORESTRY INDUSTRY

本文从系统论、信息论和控制论思想出发,综合运用了灰色系统理论和主成份分析技术,对我国森林工业近年来千人死亡率、千人重伤率、万立米木材死亡率和万立米木材重伤率的发展态势进行了分析,并据此对我国森林工业1992～1993年上述4项指标进行了预测;同时,从行业宏观决策与调控需要角度,分析、讨论了影响我国森林工业千人死亡率的7项综合特征指标,为我国森林工业制定宏观安全生产战略方针,提供了重要依据。

Abstract This paper shows the dynamical trend of death frequency rate of per thousand labourers (DRL), major injury frequency rate of per thousand labourer(IRL) and death frequency rate of per myristere—wood(DRW), major injury frequency rate of per myristere—wood (IRW) in china's forestry industry in these years by the way of grey system theory and principal component analysis techniques. From the view of system theory, information theory and cybernetics, and on these grounds, it forecasts the indexes of the above four rates between 1992and1993. At the same time,The aothor analyses and discusses the indexes of seven comprehensive characteristics that effect the DRI, in China's forestry industry at the angle of the industry's macro decision and the need of adjustion and control. The paper provides important basis for China's forestry industry to formulate the strategic policy for macro safety production.