用地震烈度史料预测场地地震危险性及与地震危险性分析的初步比较

Probabilistic Estimation to Hazard of Engineering Site Basedon Intensity of Historic Earthquakes and PreliminaryComparison with that of Seismic Hazard Analysis

本文介绍一种新的评估场地地震危险性的概率方法。该方法主要依据场地历史地震影响烈度资料,其特点是吸收了地震危险性分析的某些思想,并能引进区域未来地震活动趋势估计。文中提出有关参数综合确定方法并对一些问题进行了讨论。作为实例,预测了14个工程场地地震危险性。与地震危险性分析方法相比,该方法具有计算简便,不确定性和敏感性因素较少的优点,并能用实际资料检验所求的场地总危险性P(I≥i)。在地震和烈度史料丰富的地区,本方法可以取得比目前危险性分析更稳定的结果。

This paper will introduce a new method of estimating seismic hazard en engineering site. Mainly based on site intensity data of historical earthquakes, the obvious character of the method is to use some ideas of seismic hazard analysis and also consider regional seismicity tendency. The anthors depictedt the comprehensive methods estimating relative parameters,discussed some problems and predicted seismic hazards of fourteen sites as practical examples. Comparing with seismic hazard analysis, this method has some advantages,such as computation simplicity,lower uncertainty and smaller sensitivity factor. Moreover total hazard P(I≥i) of a site can be examined with real historic data. The results given by the method of this paper can be more stable than that of seismic hazard analysis nowadays.