前兆地震活动图象及其在地震预报中的作用

Recognition of Precursory Seismicity Patterns and Its Applications to Earthquake Prediction

本文根据长、中和短期预报研究对主要地震活动图象加以归类和简述。结果表明:(1)利用地震活动图象进行中、短期预报,预报时间量程可能达到1、2年,甚至几个月,但要进一步缩短预报的时间尺度就十分困难,除非有明显的前震序列活动;(2)地震活动图象分析,对于辨认未来主震(尤其是强主震)的位置是有效的;(3)强震和中强震前的图象特点是有区别的,据此,可以大概估计未来主震的震级。不过图象的空间尺度与主震震级无明显的相关性;(4)信号震、前兆震群和前震(包括早期前震)的确定应考虑到异常的地震活动时空图象。

In this paper, main seismicity patterns are classified and explained according to the concept of long-, intermediate-,and short-term prediction. The results show that: (1 )The intermediate-,and short-term predictions based on the analysis of seismic patterns may be on the order of a few years, even several months in estimating the time of future earthquakes. But it is extremely difficult to shorten the time estimation for future events further,unless there are clear sequence activities of foreshocks. (2) The analysis of seismic patterns is efficient for determining the locations of future mainshocks (especially strong mainshocks). (3)The shape of seismic patterns are distinguishable before strong and moderate earthquakes,according to this,the approximate sizes of mainshocks may be estimated prior to their occurrence. However,there is no clear interrelation between the space scales of seismic patterns and the magnitude of mainshocks. (4)Signal shock and precursory earthquake swarm and foreshock activities always accompany the anomalous space-time patterns of seismic'ty.